The Global Dairy Trade (GDT) Event 405 on 2 June recorded a 0.6% decline in its overall price index, breaking a streak of positive auctions.
Whole Milk Powder (WMP) fell 2.2% to USD 3,706 per metric tonne, while Skim Milk Powder (SMP) dropped 3.0% to USD 3,457 per metric tonne.
However, fat products showed resilience, with butter and anhydrous milk fat prices recovering.
The average FAS price for all milk powder contracts settled at USD 4,021 per metric tonne.
Volume increased 10.7%, suggesting that while buyers are becoming cautious after earlier aggressive restocking, underlying demand remains robust. Fonterra confirmed the auction results.
6月2日举行的全球乳制品贸易（GDT）第405期拍卖整体价格指数下跌0.6%，打破了此前连续上涨的势头。
全脂奶粉（WMP）下跌2.2%至每吨3,706美元，脱脂奶粉（SMP）下跌3.0%至每吨3,457美元。
然而，脂肪类产品表现坚挺，黄油和无水乳脂价格回升。
所有奶粉合同的平均FAS价格定为每吨4,021美元。
成交量增长10.7%，表明尽管买家在前期积极补货后趋于谨慎，但潜在需求依然强劲。恒天然确认了拍卖结果。
Comment:
The WMP price correction is a healthy pause after sustained buying, not a demand collapse.
Dairy markets are entering a consolidation phase.
China's push for dairy self-sufficiency (targeting 25% import dependence by 2030, down from 40%) creates long-term headwinds, but New Zealand's grass-fed, high-quality production remains irreplaceable for premium Chinese consumer segments.
We expect GDT prices to stabilise in coming auctions, with seasonal demand from China's Q3 manufacturing cycle providing support.
The structural demand story for NZ dairy in China remains intact.
全脂奶粉价格回调是在持续买入后的健康休整，而非需求崩溃。
乳制品市场正进入盘整阶段。
中国推动乳制品自给自足（目标到2030年将进口依赖度从40%降至25%）带来长期阻力，但新西兰草饲高品质生产对中国高端消费群体而言仍不可替代。
我们预计GDT价格在后续拍卖中将趋于稳定，中国第三季度制造业周期的季节性需求将提供支撑。
新西兰乳制品在中国的结构性需求故事依然完整。